Ath Bilbao vs Ath Madrid prediction
Spain La Liga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 16:15 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ath Madrid to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Ath Bilbao 32% at home, a draw 26% and Ath Madrid 42%, so its call is 2: Ath Madrid to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 35% / 28% / 37%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ath Bilbao and 1.4 for Ath Madrid; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 54%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ath Bilbao
Attack 13th of 20, defence 6th of 20 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Celta 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 at Barcelona 2026-08-27
- L 1-3 v Sevilla 2026-08-22
- L 2-4 at Real Madrid 2026-05-23
- D 1-1 v Celta 2026-05-17
Ath Madrid
Attack 4th of 20, defence 4th of 20 in the league.
- W 3-1 at Sevilla 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Villarreal 2026-08-23
- W 2-0 v Malaga 2026-08-19
- L 1-5 at Villarreal 2026-05-24
- W 1-0 v Girona 2026-05-17
From 792 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Vallecano vs Santander · FT 3–2
- Villarreal vs La Coruna · FT 2–3