Sp Lisbon vs Nacional prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Sp Lisbon to win as the most likely result (84%). It gives Sp Lisbon 84% at home, a draw 11% and Nacional 6%, so its call is 1: Sp Lisbon to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 89% / 8% / 3%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sp Lisbon and 0.7 for Nacional; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 70%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Sp Lisbon
Attack 1st of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- W 4-0 at Rio Ave 2026-08-28
- W 3-1 v Alverca 2026-08-22
- W 3-2 v Guimaraes 2026-08-14
- D 2-2 at Estrela 2026-08-08
- W 3-0 v Gil Vicente 2026-05-16
Nacional
Attack 14th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- L 2-3 v Estrela 2026-08-30
- L 0-1 at Guimaraes 2026-08-23
- W 2-0 v Estoril 2026-08-16
- D 2-2 at Santa Clara 2026-08-10
- W 2-0 v Guimaraes 2026-05-16
From 646 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Estrela vs Famalicao · FT 2–2
- Maritimo vs Benfica · FT 0–3
- Alverca vs Sp Braga · FT 1–2