Maritimo vs Benfica prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Benfica to win as the most likely result (75%). It gives Maritimo 10% at home, a draw 15% and Benfica 75%, so its call is 2: Benfica to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 5% / 11% / 84%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 0.8 for Maritimo and 2.5 for Benfica; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 64%. Careful: there is little recent data on Maritimo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Maritimo
Attack 10th of 18, defence 12th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Arouca 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 at Famalicao 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 v Casa Pia 2026-08-08
Benfica
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Estoril 2026-08-31
- W 7-0 at Casa Pia 2026-08-17
- D 2-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-08-09
- W 3-1 at Estoril 2026-05-16
- D 2-2 v Sp Braga 2026-05-11
From 646 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Estrela vs Famalicao · FT 2–2
- Alverca vs Sp Braga · FT 1–2
- Sp Lisbon vs Nacional · FT 2–0