Ascoli vs Benevento prediction
Italy Serie B · Saturday 5 September 2026, 17:15 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ascoli to win as the most likely result (48%). It gives Ascoli 48% at home, a draw 30% and Benevento 22%, so its call is 1: Ascoli to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 36% / 28% / 35%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ascoli and 0.9 for Benevento; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 59%. Careful: there is little recent data on Ascoli, Benevento, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ascoli
Attack 15th of 20, defence 13th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Carrarese 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at Verona 2026-08-23
Benevento
Attack 18th of 20, defence 18th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Sudtirol 2026-08-30
- L 1-2 v Modena 2026-08-22
From 780 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Sat 5 Sep
- Sudtirol vs Catanzaro · FT 2–0
- Carrarese vs Empoli · FT 0–1