Arbroath vs Dunfermline prediction
Scotland Championship · Saturday 5 September 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1X ✓ (home win or draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Arbroath to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Arbroath 39% at home, a draw 35% and Dunfermline 27%, so its call is 1X: Arbroath to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 32% / 30% / 38%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arbroath and 0.9 for Dunfermline; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 66%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Arbroath
Attack 7th of 10, defence 4th of 10 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Livingston 2026-08-29
- W 2-1 at Morton 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 v Inverness C 2026-08-08
- L 0-2 at Ayr 2026-08-01
- D 0-0 at Dunfermline 2026-05-01
Dunfermline
Attack 6th of 10, defence 5th of 10 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Raith Rvs 2026-08-28
- L 0-2 at Livingston 2026-08-22
- D 1-1 v Ayr 2026-08-08
- D 0-0 at Inverness C 2026-08-01
- D 0-0 v Arbroath 2026-05-01
From 381 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.
More Scotland Championship games on Sat 5 Sep
- Partick vs Ayr · FT 1–0
- Queens Park vs Morton · FT 2–1
- Inverness C vs Raith Rvs · FT 0–2