Burnley vs Middlesbrough prediction
England Championship · Wednesday 2 September 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Burnley to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Burnley 45% at home, a draw 29% and Middlesbrough 26%, so its call is 1: Burnley to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 30% / 25% / 45%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Burnley and 1.0 for Middlesbrough; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Burnley, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Burnley
Attack 6th of 24, defence 1st of 24 in the league.
- L 1-4 at Norwich 2026-08-29
- L 1-3 at West Brom 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 v West Ham 2026-08-16
- W 3-1 v Millwall 2025-05-03
- W 5-0 at QPR 2025-04-26
Middlesbrough
Attack 4th of 24, defence 3rd of 24 in the league.
- W 3-1 v West Brom 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 at Blackburn 2026-08-22
- W 2-1 v Lincoln 2026-08-15
- D 2-2 at Wrexham 2026-05-02
- W 5-1 v Watford 2026-04-25
From 1148 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Wed 2 Sep
- Millwall vs Wrexham · FT 0–3
- QPR vs Cardiff · FT 2–1
- West Brom vs Charlton · FT 1–1