Mainz vs Paderborn prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Paderborn to win as the most likely result (47%). It gives Mainz 29% at home, a draw 24% and Paderborn 47%, so its call is 2: Paderborn to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 64% / 20% / 16%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mainz and 1.8 for Paderborn; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 63%. Careful: there is little recent data on Paderborn, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 613 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.