Porto vs Arouca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Porto to win as the most likely result (77%). It gives Porto 77% at home, a draw 15% and Arouca 8%, so its call is 1: Porto to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 77% / 16% / 8%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 2.4 for Porto and 0.6 for Arouca; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 59%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Porto
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 at Rio Ave 2026-08-15
- W 2-0 v Alverca 2026-08-09
- W 1-0 v Santa Clara 2026-05-16
- L 1-3 at AVS 2026-05-10
- W 1-0 v Alverca 2026-05-02
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
- W 4-0 v Moreirense 2026-08-16
- W 1-0 at Guimaraes 2026-08-08
- W 3-1 v Tondela 2026-05-16
- W 3-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-05-11
- D 2-2 v Santa Clara 2026-05-02
From 632 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 23 Aug
- Guimaraes vs Nacional · FT 1–0
- Santa Clara vs Famalicao · FT 1–0