Guimaraes vs Nacional prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Guimaraes to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Guimaraes 45% at home, a draw 26% and Nacional 28%, so its call is 1: Guimaraes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 61% / 23% / 16%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guimaraes and 1.0 for Nacional; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Guimaraes
Attack 7th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- L 2-3 at Sp Lisbon 2026-08-14
- L 0-1 v Arouca 2026-08-08
- L 0-2 at Nacional 2026-05-16
- L 0-1 v Casa Pia 2026-05-11
- L 1-5 at Sp Lisbon 2026-05-04
Nacional
Attack 13th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 v Estoril 2026-08-16
- D 2-2 at Santa Clara 2026-08-10
- W 2-0 v Guimaraes 2026-05-16
- L 0-2 at Santa Clara 2026-05-11
- L 1-2 v AVS 2026-05-02
From 632 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 23 Aug
- Santa Clara vs Famalicao · FT 1–0
- Porto vs Arouca · FT 2–0