Luton vs Notts County prediction
England League One · Saturday 22 August 2026, 13:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Luton to win as the most likely result (63%). It gives Luton 63% at home, a draw 20% and Notts County 17%, so its call is 1: Luton to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 64% / 21% / 15%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 2.0 for Luton and 0.9 for Notts County; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Notts County, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Luton
Attack 2nd of 24, defence 8th of 24 in the league.
- W 4-3 at Reading 2026-08-15
- W 3-2 at Bolton 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 v Barnsley 2026-04-25
- W 2-0 at Rotherham 2026-04-21
- D 2-2 at Mansfield 2026-04-18
Notts County
Attack 22nd of 24, defence 19th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Leicester 2026-08-15
From 1117 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England League One games on Sat 22 Aug
- Doncaster vs Barnsley · FT 0–0
- Stockport vs Blackpool · FT 1–2
- Wycombe vs Plymouth · FT 1–1
- Wigan vs Leyton Orient · FT 0–2
- Stevenage vs Oxford · FT 1–2
- AFC Wimbledon vs Reading · FT 0–0
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Huddersfield · FT 1–1
- Leicester vs Burton · FT 1–2
- Bromley vs Cambridge · FT 1–1
- Peterboro vs Mansfield · FT 2–1