Leicester vs Burton prediction
England League One · Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Leicester to win as the most likely result (50%). It gives Leicester 50% at home, a draw 25% and Burton 25%, so its call is 1: Leicester to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 63% / 22% / 16%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Leicester and 1.0 for Burton; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Leicester, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Leicester
Attack 11th of 24, defence 9th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Notts County 2026-08-15
Burton
Attack 19th of 24, defence 10th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Stevenage 2026-08-15
- D 2-2 at Leyton Orient 2026-05-02
- D 1-1 v Exeter 2026-04-25
- D 1-1 at Peterboro 2026-04-19
- W 1-0 v AFC Wimbledon 2026-04-11
From 1117 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England League One games on Sat 22 Aug
- Doncaster vs Barnsley · FT 0–0
- Luton vs Notts County · FT 2–2
- Stockport vs Blackpool · FT 1–2
- Wycombe vs Plymouth · FT 1–1
- Wigan vs Leyton Orient · FT 0–2
- Stevenage vs Oxford · FT 1–2
- AFC Wimbledon vs Reading · FT 0–0
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Huddersfield · FT 1–1
- Bromley vs Cambridge · FT 1–1
- Peterboro vs Mansfield · FT 2–1