Arouca vs Moreirense prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Arouca to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Arouca 46% at home, a draw 24% and Moreirense 30%, so its call is 1: Arouca to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 54% / 26% / 20%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Arouca and 1.3 for Moreirense; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Guimaraes 2026-08-08
- W 3-1 v Tondela 2026-05-16
- W 3-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-05-11
- D 2-2 v Santa Clara 2026-05-02
- L 1-2 at Alverca 2026-04-24
Moreirense
Attack 10th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Sp Braga 2026-08-09
- D 0-0 v AVS 2026-05-16
- L 0-2 at Tondela 2026-05-11
- W 3-2 v Estrela 2026-05-02
- L 1-4 at Benfica 2026-04-25
From 625 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 16 Aug
- Nacional vs Estoril · FT 2–0
- Famalicao vs Maritimo · FT 1–2