Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 15 August 2026, 18:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Utrecht to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Utrecht 46% at home, a draw 27% and AZ Alkmaar 27%, so its call is 1: Utrecht to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 32% / 26% / 42%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Utrecht and 1.2 for AZ Alkmaar; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 53%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Utrecht
Attack 8th of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Groningen 2026-08-09
- W 2-0 v For Sittard 2026-05-17
- W 2-1 at Ajax 2026-05-10
- W 2-0 v NAC Breda 2026-05-02
- L 0-5 at Excelsior 2026-04-26
AZ Alkmaar
Attack 7th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-0 v Den Haag 2026-08-08
- D 3-3 v NAC Breda 2026-05-17
- D 1-1 at Feyenoord 2026-05-10
- D 2-2 v Twente 2026-05-03
- D 0-0 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-04-23
From 622 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 15 Aug
- Willem II vs Nijmegen · FT 1–4
- Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven · FT 1–2
- For Sittard vs Cambuur · FT 3–1