Metz vs Guingamp prediction
France Ligue 2 · Saturday 8 August 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Metz to win as the most likely result (64%). It gives Metz 64% at home, a draw 20% and Guingamp 17%, so its call is 1: Metz to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 48% / 27% / 25%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.2 for Metz and 1.0 for Guingamp; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 63%. Careful: there is little recent data on Metz, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Metz
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 3-2 at Laval 2025-05-10
- D 3-3 v Rodez 2025-05-02
- L 1-2 at Pau FC 2025-04-26
- D 2-2 v Red Star 2025-04-19
- W 4-1 at Martigues 2025-04-11
Guingamp
Attack 9th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Clermont 2026-05-09
- L 0-1 v Bastia 2026-05-02
- L 2-3 at Red Star 2026-04-24
- L 1-2 at Pau FC 2026-04-17
- D 1-1 v Grenoble 2026-04-10
From 611 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 2 games on Sat 8 Aug
- Nantes vs Red Star · FT 0–1
- Rodez vs Laval · FT 3–1
- Pau FC vs Annecy · FT 0–1
- Montpellier vs Dijon · FT 1–1
- Sochaux vs St Etienne · FT 0–3
- Dunkerque vs Grenoble · FT 4–2
- Clermont vs Reims · FT 0–0
- Boulogne vs Nancy · FT 0–0