Guimaraes vs Arouca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 8 August 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Guimaraes to win as the most likely result (50%). It gives Guimaraes 50% at home, a draw 24% and Arouca 27%, so its call is 1: Guimaraes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 50% / 26% / 24%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.7 for Guimaraes and 1.2 for Arouca; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Guimaraes
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 0-2 at Nacional 2026-05-16
- L 0-1 v Casa Pia 2026-05-11
- L 1-5 at Sp Lisbon 2026-05-04
- W 2-0 v Rio Ave 2026-04-25
- W 1-0 at Gil Vicente 2026-04-18
Arouca
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 3-1 v Tondela 2026-05-16
- W 3-1 at Gil Vicente 2026-05-11
- D 2-2 v Santa Clara 2026-05-02
- L 1-2 at Alverca 2026-04-24
- W 1-0 v Estrela 2026-04-19
From 613 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 8 Aug
- Maritimo vs Casa Pia · FT 1–0
- Estrela vs Sp Lisbon · FT 2–2