Derby vs Norwich prediction
England Championship · Tuesday 3 November 2026, 20:45 WAT
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (38%). It gives Derby 38% at home, a draw 26% and Norwich 36%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 27% / 25% / 47%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Derby and 1.4 for Norwich; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Locked before kick-off (2026-11-03 10:21 UTC) and graded on that call. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 15th of 24, defence 16th of 24 in the league.
- L 1-4 at Millwall 2026-10-31
- D 1-1 at Sheffield United 2026-10-24
- L 0-1 v Stoke 2026-10-17
- L 1-4 at QPR 2026-10-14
- D 1-1 v Wrexham 2026-10-10
Norwich
Attack 5th of 24, defence 18th of 24 in the league.
- W 3-2 v Watford 2026-10-31
- W 3-1 at Charlton 2026-10-24
- L 0-1 v Portsmouth 2026-10-17
- L 0-1 v Southampton 2026-10-14
- L 1-2 at Swansea 2026-10-10
From 1260 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.