Lorient vs Monaco prediction
France Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026, 17:15 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Monaco to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Lorient 34% at home, a draw 26% and Monaco 40%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 25% / 27% / 48%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lorient and 1.5 for Monaco; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Lorient
Attack 13th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Paris FC 2026-10-10
- L 1-2 at Le Mans 2026-09-19
- D 2-2 v Toulouse 2026-09-12
- W 1-0 at Lens 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 v Troyes 2026-08-29
Monaco
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Toulouse 2026-10-10
- W 2-1 v Lens 2026-09-18
- D 1-1 at Strasbourg 2026-09-12
- W 2-1 at Paris SG 2026-09-04
- W 2-0 v Marseille 2026-08-30
From 670 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sun 18 Oct
- Angers vs Marseille · FT 2–5
- Le Havre vs Auxerre · FT 1–3
- Paris FC vs Rennes · FT 4–3
- Lyon vs Nice · FT 2–1