Groningen vs Ajax prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 18 October 2026, 16:45 WAT
Full timeGroningen 2–5 AjaxResult 2
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
GroningenDrawAjax
Model 2 ✓
28%27%45%
Market 2 ✓
28%23%50%
Brit Predictor's model rates Ajax to win as the most likely result (45%). It gives Groningen 28% at home, a draw 27% and Ajax 45%, so its call is 2: Ajax to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 28% / 23% / 50%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.3 for Groningen and 1.6 for Ajax; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals55%
Both teams score59%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Groningen
Attack 9th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
WWDDL
- W 5-1 at Excelsior 2026-10-11
- W 3-0 v Zwolle 2026-09-18
- D 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-09-12
- D 2-2 v Twente 2026-09-06
- L 2-3 v For Sittard 2026-08-28
Ajax
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
DDWWL
- D 1-1 v Nijmegen 2026-10-10
- D 2-2 v Excelsior 2026-09-19
- W 5-1 v Willem II 2026-09-15
- W 5-1 at For Sittard 2026-09-12
- L 1-3 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-09-05
From 688 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sun 18 Oct
- Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles · FT 4–1
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar · FT 2–2
- Nijmegen vs For Sittard · FT 2–2
- Twente vs Utrecht · FT 1–2