Troyes vs Marseille prediction
France Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Marseille to win as the most likely result (73%). It gives Troyes 11% at home, a draw 16% and Marseille 73%, so its call is 2: Marseille to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 27% / 26% / 47%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Troyes and 2.7 for Marseille; the single most likely score is 0-2. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Troyes
Attack 18th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Angers 2026-09-19
- L 0-2 at Lille 2026-09-13
- L 2-6 v Strasbourg 2026-09-06
- W 2-1 at Lorient 2026-08-29
- D 0-0 v Paris FC 2026-08-22
Marseille
Attack 2nd of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Paris SG 2026-09-20
- L 0-1 at Rennes 2026-09-11
- L 2-3 v Paris FC 2026-09-06
- L 0-2 at Monaco 2026-08-30
- W 4-0 v Strasbourg 2026-08-21
From 663 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sun 11 Oct
- Nice vs Strasbourg · FT 2–1
- Rennes vs Auxerre · FT 4–1