Excelsior vs Groningen prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:45 WAT
Full timeExcelsior 1–5 GroningenResult 2
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
ExcelsiorDrawGroningen
Model 1 ✗
42%28%30%
Market 12 ✓
35%26%39%
Brit Predictor's model rates Excelsior to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Excelsior 42% at home, a draw 28% and Groningen 30%, so its call is 1: Excelsior to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 35% / 26% / 39%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.5 for Excelsior and 1.3 for Groningen; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals53%
Both teams score57%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Excelsior
Attack 9th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
DLDWW
- D 2-2 at Ajax 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Utrecht 2026-09-13
- D 2-2 at Nijmegen 2026-09-08
- W 3-0 at Willem II 2026-09-05
- W 2-1 v Sparta Rotterdam 2026-08-29
Groningen
Attack 11th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
WDDLL
- W 3-0 v Zwolle 2026-09-18
- D 1-1 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-09-12
- D 2-2 v Twente 2026-09-06
- L 2-3 v For Sittard 2026-08-28
- L 1-5 at PSV Eindhoven 2026-08-23
From 680 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sun 11 Oct
- Utrecht vs Willem II · FT 3–1
- Telstar vs Den Haag · FT 2–2
- Zwolle vs Cambuur · FT 0–1