Paderborn vs Hoffenheim prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Paderborn to win as the most likely result (37%). It gives Paderborn 37% at home, a draw 26% and Hoffenheim 36%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 24% / 22% / 55%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paderborn and 1.4 for Hoffenheim; the single most likely score is 1-1. Careful: there is little recent data on Paderborn, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Paderborn
Attack 16th of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-3 at Dortmund 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v Freiburg 2026-09-05
- D 0-0 at Mainz 2026-08-29
Hoffenheim
Attack 8th of 18, defence 13th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- L 2-3 v Dortmund 2026-09-05
- L 2-3 at FC Koln 2026-08-29
- L 0-4 at M'gladbach 2026-05-16
- W 1-0 v Werder Bremen 2026-05-09
From 645 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sun 20 Sep
- Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig · FT 2–0
- Schalke 04 vs Elversberg · FT 0–0