Metz vs St Etienne prediction
France Ligue 2 · Saturday 19 September 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates St Etienne to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Metz 36% at home, a draw 25% and St Etienne 39%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 24% / 25% / 50%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.5 for Metz and 1.5 for St Etienne; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Metz, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Metz
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Red Star 2026-09-14
- W 4-1 v Rodez 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 at Annecy 2026-08-29
- D 1-1 v Laval 2026-08-22
- D 0-0 at Grenoble 2026-08-14
St Etienne
Attack 1st of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 at Dunkerque 2026-09-12
- W 3-1 v Montpellier 2026-09-05
- W 3-2 at Dijon 2026-08-31
- W 4-0 v Grenoble 2026-08-22
- W 3-1 v Clermont 2026-08-14
From 671 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 2 games on Sat 19 Sep
- Boulogne vs Nantes · FT 1–2
- Guingamp vs Red Star · FT 1–3