Ajax vs Excelsior prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 19 September 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Ajax to win as the most likely result (62%). It gives Ajax 62% at home, a draw 23% and Excelsior 16%, so its call is 1: Ajax to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 80% / 12% / 8%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.1 for Ajax and 1.0 for Excelsior; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ajax
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 5-1 v Willem II 2026-09-15
- W 5-1 at For Sittard 2026-09-12
- L 1-3 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-09-05
- W 4-0 at Telstar 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-16
Excelsior
Attack 9th of 18, defence 7th of 18 in the league.
- L 1-2 v Utrecht 2026-09-13
- D 2-2 at Nijmegen 2026-09-08
- W 3-0 at Willem II 2026-09-05
- W 2-1 v Sparta Rotterdam 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-08-15
From 667 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 19 Sep
- Den Haag vs Cambuur · FT 1–1
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen · FT 0–4
- Willem II vs For Sittard · FT 0–1