Lille vs Troyes prediction
France Ligue 1 · Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lille to win as the most likely result (65%). It gives Lille 65% at home, a draw 22% and Troyes 13%, so its call is 1: Lille to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 66% / 20% / 15%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lille and 0.8 for Troyes; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 53%. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Lille
Attack 8th of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Toulouse 2026-09-03
- D 2-2 v Paris SG 2026-08-28
- W 2-0 at Angers 2026-08-23
- L 0-2 v Auxerre 2026-05-17
- W 1-0 at Monaco 2026-05-10
Troyes
Attack 15th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 2-6 v Strasbourg 2026-09-06
- W 2-1 at Lorient 2026-08-29
- D 0-0 v Paris FC 2026-08-22
From 645 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sun 13 Sep
- Le Mans vs Lens · FT 2–2
- Brest vs Paris SG · FT 0–1