Casa Pia vs Porto prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Porto to win as the most likely result (74%). It gives Casa Pia 8% at home, a draw 18% and Porto 74%, so its call is 2: Porto to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 5% / 12% / 84%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 0.5 for Casa Pia and 2.0 for Porto; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 55%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Casa Pia
Attack 18th of 18, defence 14th of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 at Guimaraes 2026-09-06
- L 0-1 v Moreirense 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 at Gil Vicente 2026-08-24
- L 0-7 v Benfica 2026-08-17
- L 0-1 at Maritimo 2026-08-08
Porto
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Moreirense 2026-09-04
- W 3-0 at Academico Viseu 2026-08-29
- W 2-0 v Arouca 2026-08-23
- W 2-0 at Rio Ave 2026-08-15
- W 2-0 v Alverca 2026-08-09
From 656 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 12 Sep
- Nacional vs Alverca · FT 1–3
- Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes · FT 2–1