Empoli vs Arezzo prediction
Italy Serie B · Friday 11 September 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Empoli to win as the most likely result (61%). It gives Empoli 61% at home, a draw 23% and Arezzo 17%, so its call is 1: Empoli to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 48% / 29% / 24%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.0 for Empoli and 1.0 for Arezzo; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%. Careful: there is little recent data on Arezzo, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Empoli
Attack 8th of 20, defence 11th of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Carrarese 2026-09-05
- L 1-3 at Mantova 2026-08-30
- W 1-0 v Cremonese 2026-08-22
- D 2-2 at Monza 2026-05-08
- W 1-0 v Avellino 2026-05-01
Arezzo
Attack 15th of 20, defence 20th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-5 at Verona 2026-09-06
- L 2-3 v Palermo 2026-08-30
- W 2-1 at Avellino 2026-08-22
From 790 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie B games on Fri 11 Sep
- Benevento vs Verona · FT 3–1
- Pisa vs Virtus Entella · FT 1–4