Derby vs West Brom prediction
England Championship · Wednesday 9 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Derby to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives Derby 41% at home, a draw 30% and West Brom 29%, so its call is 1: Derby to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 27% / 28% / 45%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.3 for Derby and 1.1 for West Brom; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 58%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Derby
Attack 12th of 24, defence 13th of 24 in the league.
- L 0-3 at West Ham 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Portsmouth 2026-09-01
- L 0-3 v Swansea 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 v Cardiff 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 at Charlton 2026-08-15
West Brom
Attack 16th of 24, defence 7th of 24 in the league.
- W 1-0 v Watford 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Charlton 2026-09-02
- L 1-3 at Middlesbrough 2026-08-29
- W 3-1 v Burnley 2026-08-23
- W 2-1 at Norwich 2026-08-15
From 1170 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Wed 9 Sep
- Norwich vs Birmingham · FT 2–1
- Charlton vs QPR · FT 0–0