Cardiff vs Stoke prediction
England Championship · Tuesday 8 September 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Cardiff to win as the most likely result (36%). It gives Cardiff 36% at home, a draw 29% and Stoke 34%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 46% / 25% / 28%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cardiff and 1.2 for Stoke; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 56%. Careful: there is little recent data on Cardiff, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Cardiff
Attack 19th of 24, defence 22nd of 24 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Portsmouth 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 at QPR 2026-09-02
- D 2-2 v Sheffield United 2026-08-29
- D 2-2 at Derby 2026-08-22
- D 1-1 v Wrexham 2026-08-17
Stoke
Attack 18th of 24, defence 16th of 24 in the league.
- W 4-0 v Charlton 2026-09-05
- W 1-0 v Norwich 2026-09-01
- L 1-4 at Wolves 2026-08-29
- L 1-3 at Southampton 2026-08-22
- L 1-2 v Swansea 2026-08-15
From 1164 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Tue 8 Sep
- Blackburn vs Sheffield United · FT 1–2
- Southampton vs Swansea · FT 3–1
- Watford vs Preston · FT 2–1
- Wrexham vs Burnley · FT 1–1
- Bolton vs West Ham · FT 2–3