Guimaraes vs Casa Pia prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 6 September 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Guimaraes to win as the most likely result (57%). It gives Guimaraes 57% at home, a draw 24% and Casa Pia 19%, so its call is 1: Guimaraes to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 67% / 21% / 12%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Guimaraes and 0.8 for Casa Pia; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 57%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Guimaraes
Attack 8th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 at Sp Braga 2026-08-31
- W 1-0 v Nacional 2026-08-23
- L 2-3 at Sp Lisbon 2026-08-14
- L 0-1 v Arouca 2026-08-08
- L 0-2 at Nacional 2026-05-16
Casa Pia
Attack 18th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Moreirense 2026-08-30
- L 0-2 at Gil Vicente 2026-08-24
- L 0-7 v Benfica 2026-08-17
- L 0-1 at Maritimo 2026-08-08
- D 1-1 v Rio Ave 2026-05-16
From 650 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 6 Sep
- Santa Clara vs Rio Ave · FT 4–0
- Gil Vicente vs Academico Viseu · FT 0–1