Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction
England Premier League · Sunday 6 September 2026, 17:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Arsenal to win as the most likely result (63%). It gives Arsenal 63% at home, a draw 24% and Chelsea 13%, so its call is 1: Arsenal to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 57% / 24% / 19%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.9 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Chelsea; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Arsenal
Attack 3rd of 20, defence 1st of 20 in the league.
- W 1-0 at Aston Villa 2026-08-31
- W 3-0 v Coventry 2026-08-21
- W 2-1 at Crystal Palace 2026-05-24
- W 1-0 v Burnley 2026-05-18
- W 1-0 at West Ham 2026-05-10
Chelsea
Attack 5th of 20, defence 14th of 20 in the league.
- W 4-3 v Brighton 2026-08-30
- W 3-2 at Fulham 2026-08-24
- L 1-2 at Sunderland 2026-05-24
- W 2-1 v Tottenham 2026-05-19
- D 1-1 at Liverpool 2026-05-09
From 788 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More England Premier League games on Sun 6 Sep
- Everton vs Man United · FT 2–2