Willem II vs Excelsior prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 5 September 2026, 21:00 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Excelsior to win as the most likely result (43%). It gives Willem II 29% at home, a draw 28% and Excelsior 43%, so its call is 2: Excelsior to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 30% / 25% / 44%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.2 for Willem II and 1.5 for Excelsior; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 51%. Careful: there is little recent data on Willem II, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Willem II
Attack 18th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-30
- L 1-4 v Nijmegen 2026-08-15
- L 1-4 at Go Ahead Eagles 2026-08-08
- D 1-1 at NAC Breda 2025-05-18
- L 1-2 v Zwolle 2025-05-14
Excelsior
Attack 12th of 18, defence 9th of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Sparta Rotterdam 2026-08-29
- L 1-2 v PSV Eindhoven 2026-08-15
- W 4-0 at Cambuur 2026-08-07
- W 3-2 at Sparta Rotterdam 2026-05-17
- D 1-1 v Volendam 2026-05-10
From 646 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 5 Sep
- Nijmegen vs Feyenoord · FT 1–3
- Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven · FT 1–3