Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Netherlands Eredivisie · Saturday 5 September 2026, 20:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates PSV Eindhoven to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Ajax 37% at home, a draw 23% and PSV Eindhoven 40%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 37% / 23% / 39%, a call of 12. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ajax and 1.9 for PSV Eindhoven; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 71%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Ajax
Attack 4th of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- W 4-0 at Telstar 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 v Heerenveen 2026-08-16
- W 2-0 at Zwolle 2026-08-09
- D 0-0 at Heerenveen 2026-05-17
- L 1-2 v Utrecht 2026-05-10
PSV Eindhoven
Attack 1st of 18, defence 5th of 18 in the league.
- W 6-1 at Utrecht 2026-08-30
- W 5-1 v Groningen 2026-08-23
- W 2-1 at Excelsior 2026-08-15
- D 2-2 v For Sittard 2026-08-08
- W 5-1 v Twente 2026-05-17
From 646 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Netherlands Eredivisie games on Sat 5 Sep
- Nijmegen vs Feyenoord · FT 1–3
- Willem II vs Excelsior · FT 0–3