Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg prediction
Germany 2. Bundesliga · Saturday 5 September 2026, 13:00 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Nurnberg to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Holstein Kiel 34% at home, a draw 26% and Nurnberg 40%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 25% / 30%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for Holstein Kiel and 1.5 for Nurnberg; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 54%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Holstein Kiel
Attack 15th of 18, defence 8th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Magdeburg 2026-08-30
- D 2-2 v St Pauli 2026-08-14
- D 2-2 at Darmstadt 2026-08-08
- L 1-2 at Dresden 2026-05-17
- L 1-3 v Magdeburg 2026-05-09
Nurnberg
Attack 3rd of 18, defence 6th of 18 in the league.
- W 4-1 v Bielefeld 2026-08-29
- W 4-2 at Greuther Furth 2026-08-15
- W 3-0 v Dresden 2026-08-09
- D 3-3 at Hannover 2026-05-17
- W 3-0 v Schalke 04 2026-05-09
From 641 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.
More Germany 2. Bundesliga games on Sat 5 Sep
- Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt · FT 3–0
- Wolfsburg vs Cottbus · FT 4–4
- Dresden vs Bochum · FT 1–2