Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 30 August 2026, 15:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Freiburg to win as the most likely result (49%). It gives Freiburg 49% at home, a draw 25% and Werder Bremen 25%, so its call is 1: Freiburg to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 54% / 24% / 21%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.7 for Freiburg and 1.2 for Werder Bremen; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 54%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Freiburg
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 4-1 v RB Leipzig 2026-05-16
- L 2-3 at Hamburg 2026-05-10
- D 1-1 v Wolfsburg 2026-05-03
- L 0-4 at Dortmund 2026-04-26
- W 2-1 v Heidenheim 2026-04-19
Werder Bremen
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 0-2 v Dortmund 2026-05-16
- L 0-1 at Hoffenheim 2026-05-09
- L 1-3 v Augsburg 2026-05-02
- D 1-1 at Stuttgart 2026-04-26
- W 3-1 v Hamburg 2026-04-18
From 619 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sun 30 Aug
- Augsburg vs Schalke 04 · FT 3–0