Fiorentina vs Frosinone prediction
Italy Serie A · Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Fiorentina to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Fiorentina 40% at home, a draw 29% and Frosinone 31%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 56% / 23% / 21%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.2 for Fiorentina and 1.0 for Frosinone; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 62%. Careful: there is little recent data on Frosinone, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Fiorentina
Attack 10th of 20, defence 12th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-4 at Roma 2026-08-24
- D 1-1 v Atalanta 2026-05-22
- W 2-0 at Juventus 2026-05-17
- D 0-0 v Genoa 2026-05-10
- L 0-4 at Roma 2026-05-04
Frosinone
Attack 15th of 20, defence 9th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-1 v Juventus 2026-08-23
From 771 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Sat 29 Aug
- Monza vs Udinese · FT 2–3
- Sassuolo vs Torino · FT 2–1
- Juventus vs Parma · FT 2–0