Alaves vs Villarreal prediction
Spain La Liga · Friday 28 August 2026, 21:30 WAT
- Model called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Villarreal to win as the most likely result (46%). It gives Alaves 31% at home, a draw 24% and Villarreal 46%, so its call is 2: Villarreal to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 31% / 27% / 42%, a call of 2. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alaves and 1.7 for Villarreal; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 58%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Alaves
Attack 14th of 20, defence 12th of 20 in the league.
- D 1-1 at Vallecano 2026-08-20
- W 3-0 v Getafe 2026-08-15
- L 1-2 v Vallecano 2026-05-23
- W 1-0 at Oviedo 2026-05-17
- W 1-0 v Barcelona 2026-05-13
Villarreal
Attack 3rd of 20, defence 9th of 20 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Ath Madrid 2026-08-23
- D 2-2 at Santander 2026-08-16
- W 5-1 v Ath Madrid 2026-05-24
- L 0-2 at Vallecano 2026-05-17
- L 2-3 v Sevilla 2026-05-13
From 780 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain La Liga games on Fri 28 Aug
- Santander vs Elche · FT 3–2