Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction
England Premier League · Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:30 WAT
- Model called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
- Market called 2 ✗ (away win): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Liverpool to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Newcastle 36% at home, a draw 25% and Liverpool 39%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 25% / 24% / 50%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.6 for Newcastle and 1.7 for Liverpool; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 64%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Newcastle
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 0-2 at Fulham 2026-05-24
- W 3-1 v West Ham 2026-05-17
- D 1-1 at Nott'm Forest 2026-05-10
- W 3-1 v Brighton 2026-05-02
- L 0-1 at Arsenal 2026-04-25
Liverpool
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- D 1-1 v Brentford 2026-05-24
- L 2-4 at Aston Villa 2026-05-15
- D 1-1 v Chelsea 2026-05-09
- L 2-3 at Man United 2026-05-03
- W 3-1 v Crystal Palace 2026-04-25
From 766 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More England Premier League games on Sun 23 Aug
- Brighton vs Aston Villa · FT 4–0
- Man City vs Bournemouth · FT 2–1