Porto vs Alverca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 9 August 2026, 19:00 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Porto to win as the most likely result (78%). It gives Porto 78% at home, a draw 15% and Alverca 7%, so its call is 1: Porto to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 82% / 13% / 5%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 2.3 for Porto and 0.5 for Alverca; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 53%.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Porto
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- W 1-0 v Santa Clara 2026-05-16
- L 1-3 at AVS 2026-05-10
- W 1-0 v Alverca 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 at Estrela 2026-04-26
- W 2-0 v Tondela 2026-04-19
Alverca
Attack new to the league, defence new to the league in the league.
- L 0-1 at Famalicao 2026-05-16
- D 1-1 v Estoril 2026-05-10
- L 0-1 at Porto 2026-05-02
- W 2-1 v Arouca 2026-04-24
- L 0-1 at Nacional 2026-04-18
From 616 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 9 Aug
- Benfica vs Academico Viseu · FT 2–2
- Gil Vicente vs Rio Ave · FT 1–0
- Moreirense vs Sp Braga · FT 2–2