Stenhousemuir vs Morton prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates Stenhousemuir to win as the most likely result (55%). It gives Stenhousemuir 55% at home, a draw 28% and Morton 17%, so its call is 1: Stenhousemuir to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 28% / 28%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stenhousemuir and 0.8 for Morton; on goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 54%. Careful: there is little recent data on Stenhousemuir, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 366 league matches since 2024-08-02, recent games weighted more.