AZ Alkmaar vs Den Haag prediction

Who wins?

Brit Predictor's model rates AZ Alkmaar to win as the most likely result (54%). It gives AZ Alkmaar 54% at home, a draw 25% and Den Haag 21%, so its call is 1: AZ Alkmaar to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 72% / 17% / 11%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.9 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.1 for Den Haag; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 57%. Careful: there is little recent data on Den Haag, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.

Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.

Strength and form

From 613 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.