Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026, 16:30 WAT
Full timeArouca 1–0 NacionalResult 1
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
AroucaDrawNacional
Model 1 ✓
50%24%27%
Market 1 ✓
53%25%22%
Brit Predictor's model rates Arouca to win as the most likely result (50%). It gives Arouca 50% at home, a draw 24% and Nacional 27%, so its call is 1: Arouca to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 53% / 25% / 22%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.6 for Arouca and 1.1 for Nacional; the single most likely score is 1-0.
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Most likely score1-0
Over 2.5 goals50%
Both teams score52%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Arouca
Attack 7th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
WWDLD
- W 1-0 at Alverca 2026-10-24
- W 1-0 v Estrela 2026-10-11
- D 2-2 at Sp Lisbon 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Santa Clara 2026-09-13
- D 0-0 at Estoril 2026-09-07
Nacional
Attack 16th of 18, defence 13th of 18 in the league.
WLLLL
- W 1-0 v Sp Braga 2026-10-25
- L 2-3 at Rio Ave 2026-10-11
- L 0-4 v Famalicao 2026-09-19
- L 1-3 v Alverca 2026-09-12
- L 0-2 at Sp Lisbon 2026-09-05
From 696 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 1 Nov
- Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave · FT 2–1
- Maritimo vs Santa Clara · FT 0–2
- Sp Braga vs Famalicao · FT 3–0