Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 19:00 WAT
Full timeAlverca 0–1 AroucaResult 2
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
AlvercaDrawArouca
Model 12 ✓
42%24%34%
Market 1 ✗
43%28%29%
Brit Predictor's model rates Alverca to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Alverca 42% at home, a draw 24% and Arouca 34%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 43% / 28% / 29%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alverca and 1.3 for Arouca; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals54%
Both teams score57%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Alverca
Attack 9th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
WWWLD
- W 4-1 at Famalicao 2026-10-12
- W 1-0 v Rio Ave 2026-09-19
- W 3-1 at Nacional 2026-09-12
- L 1-2 v Sp Braga 2026-09-05
- D 1-1 v Santa Clara 2026-08-29
Arouca
Attack 7th of 18, defence 11th of 18 in the league.
WDLDW
- W 1-0 v Estrela 2026-10-11
- D 2-2 at Sp Lisbon 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Santa Clara 2026-09-13
- D 0-0 at Estoril 2026-09-07
- W 2-1 v Maritimo 2026-08-29
From 685 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sat 24 Oct
- Estrela vs Casa Pia · FT 0–2
- Gil Vicente vs Porto · FT 0–1