Troyes vs Lens prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
- Market called 2 ✓ (away win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Lens to win as the most likely result (75%). It gives Troyes 8% at home, a draw 17% and Lens 75%, so its call is 2: Lens to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 22% / 24% / 54%, a call of 2 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.7 for Troyes and 2.4 for Lens; the single most likely score is 0-2. Careful: there is little recent data on Troyes, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Troyes
Attack 18th of 18, defence 18th of 18 in the league.
- L 0-2 v Marseille 2026-10-11
- L 0-2 at Angers 2026-09-19
- L 0-2 at Lille 2026-09-13
- L 2-6 v Strasbourg 2026-09-06
- W 2-1 at Lorient 2026-08-29
Lens
Attack 6th of 18, defence 3rd of 18 in the league.
- W 2-1 v Lyon 2026-10-09
- L 1-2 at Monaco 2026-09-18
- D 2-2 at Le Mans 2026-09-13
- L 0-1 v Lorient 2026-09-05
- L 1-2 at Strasbourg 2026-08-29
From 667 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 17 Oct
- Strasbourg vs Paris SG · FT 1–3
- Lille vs Brest · FT 1–1