Lille vs Brest prediction
France Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
Full timeLille 1–1 BrestResult X
- Model called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
LilleDrawBrest
Model 1 ✗
59%23%18%
Market 1 ✗
45%26%28%
Brit Predictor's model rates Lille to win as the most likely result (59%). It gives Lille 59% at home, a draw 23% and Brest 18%, so its call is 1: Lille to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 26% / 28%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lille and 0.9 for Brest; the single most likely score is 1-0.
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Most likely score1-0
Over 2.5 goals52%
Both teams score51%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Lille
Attack 10th of 18, defence 2nd of 18 in the league.
WLWWD
- W 1-0 v Le Havre 2026-10-10
- L 1-2 at Nice 2026-09-20
- W 2-0 v Troyes 2026-09-13
- W 1-0 at Toulouse 2026-09-03
- D 2-2 v Paris SG 2026-08-28
Brest
Attack 8th of 18, defence 16th of 18 in the league.
WLLWD
- W 5-1 v Angers 2026-10-10
- L 1-2 at Auxerre 2026-09-20
- L 0-1 v Paris SG 2026-09-13
- W 2-1 at Le Havre 2026-09-05
- D 2-2 v Toulouse 2026-08-29
From 667 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More France Ligue 1 games on Sat 17 Oct
- Strasbourg vs Paris SG · FT 1–3
- Troyes vs Lens · FT 1–3