Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction
England Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
Full timeNewcastle 0–1 Aston VillaResult 2
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✗ (home win): got it wrong
Who wins?
NewcastleDrawAston Villa
Model 12 ✓
42%26%32%
Market 1 ✗
45%25%31%
Brit Predictor's model rates Newcastle to win as the most likely result (42%). It gives Newcastle 42% at home, a draw 26% and Aston Villa 32%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 25% / 31%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newcastle and 1.4 for Aston Villa; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals60%
Both teams score63%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Newcastle
Attack 8th of 20, defence 17th of 20 in the league.
LWLDW
- L 1-4 at Coventry 2026-10-12
- W 2-1 v Hull 2026-09-19
- L 1-4 at Leeds 2026-09-14
- D 2-2 v Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- W 2-0 at Tottenham 2026-08-29
Aston Villa
Attack 10th of 20, defence 11th of 20 in the league.
DWLDL
- D 2-2 v Brentford 2026-10-10
- W 3-2 at Tottenham 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Nott'm Forest 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 at Hull 2026-09-05
- L 0-1 v Arsenal 2026-08-31
From 820 league matches since 2024-08-16, recent games weighted more.
More England Premier League games on Sat 17 Oct
- Everton vs Chelsea · FT 0–2
- Brentford vs Liverpool · FT 1–2
- Fulham vs Hull · FT 1–0
- Man City vs Ipswich · FT 3–2