Eibar vs Mallorca prediction
Spain Segunda · Saturday 17 October 2026, 16:15 WAT
- Model called X2 ✓ (draw or away win): called it
- Market called 12 ✗ (either team wins, no draw): got it wrong
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Mallorca to win as the most likely result (40%). It gives Eibar 21% at home, a draw 39% and Mallorca 40%, so its call is X2: Mallorca to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 39% / 29% / 32%, a call of 12 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 0.5 for Eibar and 0.8 for Mallorca; the single most likely score is 0-0. Careful: there is little recent data on Mallorca, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Eibar
Attack 11th of 22, defence 4th of 22 in the league.
- L 1-3 at Oviedo 2026-10-12
- W 3-1 at Albacete 2026-10-03
- W 3-2 v Las Palmas 2026-09-27
- W 2-1 at Eldense 2026-09-19
- W 4-0 at Celta B 2026-09-14
Mallorca
Attack 13th of 22, defence 1st of 22 in the league.
- W 3-1 v Las Palmas 2026-10-11
- D 0-0 at Girona 2026-10-04
- L 0-1 v Almeria 2026-09-27
- W 1-0 at Sociedad B 2026-09-19
- W 2-0 v Sabadell 2026-09-13
From 1024 league matches since 2024-08-15, recent games weighted more.
More Spain Segunda games on Sat 17 Oct
- Sociedad B vs Almeria · FT 2–4
- Sp Gijon vs Albacete · FT 2–1
- Las Palmas vs Castellon · FT 0–3