QPR vs Derby prediction
England Championship · Wednesday 14 October 2026, 20:45 WAT
- Model called 12 ✓ (either team wins, no draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates QPR to win as the most likely result (41%). It gives QPR 41% at home, a draw 28% and Derby 32%, so its call is 12: either team to win (no draw). The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 54% / 25% / 21%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.4 for QPR and 1.2 for Derby; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
QPR
Attack 13th of 24, defence 17th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 at West Ham 2026-10-09
- D 2-2 v Preston 2026-09-19
- D 1-1 at West Brom 2026-09-12
- D 0-0 at Charlton 2026-09-09
- L 0-1 v Middlesbrough 2026-09-05
Derby
Attack 16th of 24, defence 12th of 24 in the league.
- D 1-1 v Wrexham 2026-10-10
- D 1-1 at Burnley 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Birmingham 2026-09-12
- L 0-1 v West Brom 2026-09-09
- L 0-3 at West Ham 2026-09-05
From 1219 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More England Championship games on Wed 14 Oct
- Norwich vs Southampton · FT 0–1
- Portsmouth vs Sheffield United · FT 3–2
- Lincoln vs West Ham · FT 0–6