Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
Italy Serie A · Monday 12 October 2026, 18:30 WAT
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Atalanta to win as the most likely result (74%). It gives Atalanta 74% at home, a draw 17% and Venezia 9%, so its call is 1: Atalanta to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 63% / 21% / 17%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 2.2 for Atalanta and 0.6 for Venezia; on goals, the model leans Over 2.5 at 55%. Careful: there is little recent data on Venezia, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points. A goals call (O2.5 or U2.5) is made only when the model gives one side at least 65%.
Strength and form
Atalanta
Attack 7th of 20, defence 5th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-2 at Juventus 2026-09-20
- L 1-2 v Cagliari 2026-09-12
- L 1-2 at Roma 2026-09-05
- W 1-0 v Bologna 2026-08-31
- W 2-1 v Sassuolo 2026-08-23
Venezia
Attack 19th of 20, defence 19th of 20 in the league.
- L 0-2 v Lazio 2026-09-19
- L 2-4 v Fiorentina 2026-09-11
- L 2-3 at Frosinone 2026-09-06
- L 0-2 at Milan 2026-08-28
- L 0-2 v Lecce 2026-08-23
From 818 league matches since 2024-08-17, recent games weighted more.
More Italy Serie A games on Mon 12 Oct
- Torino vs Udinese · FT 2–1