Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction
Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:30 WAT
- Model called 1X ✓ (home win or draw): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
Brit Predictor's model rates Freiburg to win as the most likely result (39%). It gives Freiburg 39% at home, a draw 35% and Schalke 04 26%, so its call is 1X: Freiburg to win or draw. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 60% / 22% / 18%, a call of 1 — a clear disagreement with the model. Expected goals are 1.0 for Freiburg and 0.7 for Schalke 04; the single most likely score is 0-0. Careful: there is little recent data on Schalke 04, usually a promoted side, and the market tends to be right about those.
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Freiburg
Attack 9th of 18, defence 10th of 18 in the league.
- D 2-2 at Ein Frankfurt 2026-09-19
- W 5-0 v M'gladbach 2026-09-12
- W 1-0 at Paderborn 2026-09-05
- W 4-1 v Werder Bremen 2026-08-30
- W 4-1 v RB Leipzig 2026-05-16
Schalke 04
Attack 17th of 18, defence 1st of 18 in the league.
- D 0-0 v Elversberg 2026-09-20
- W 3-1 at Union Berlin 2026-09-11
- D 0-0 v Bayern Munich 2026-09-05
- L 0-3 at Augsburg 2026-08-30
From 655 league matches since 2024-08-23, recent games weighted more.
More Germany Bundesliga games on Sun 11 Oct
- FC Koln vs M'gladbach · FT 2–1