Arouca vs Estrela prediction
Portugal Primeira Liga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 21:30 WAT
Full timeArouca 1–0 EstrelaResult 1
- Model called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
- Market called 1 ✓ (home win): called it
Who wins?
AroucaDrawEstrela
Model 1 ✓
51%23%26%
Market 1 ✓
45%27%28%
Brit Predictor's model rates Arouca to win as the most likely result (51%). It gives Arouca 51% at home, a draw 23% and Estrela 26%, so its call is 1: Arouca to win. The bookmakers, with their margin removed, have it 45% / 27% / 28%, a call of 1. Expected goals are 1.8 for Arouca and 1.2 for Estrela; the single most likely score is 1-1.
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Most likely score1-1
Over 2.5 goals59%
Both teams score60%
Rebuilt after kick-off using only matches played before it. A double chance (1X, X2, 12) is called when the top two results are within 10 points.
Strength and form
Arouca
Attack 6th of 18, defence 13th of 18 in the league.
DLDWL
- D 2-2 at Sp Lisbon 2026-09-19
- L 1-2 v Santa Clara 2026-09-13
- D 0-0 at Estoril 2026-09-07
- W 2-1 v Maritimo 2026-08-29
- L 0-2 at Porto 2026-08-23
Estrela
Attack 10th of 18, defence 17th of 18 in the league.
LDWDW
- L 0-2 v Academico Viseu 2026-09-20
- D 3-3 at Rio Ave 2026-09-14
- W 2-1 v Sp Braga 2026-09-10
- D 2-2 v Famalicao 2026-09-05
- W 3-2 at Nacional 2026-08-30
From 679 league matches since 2024-08-09, recent games weighted more.
More Portugal Primeira Liga games on Sun 11 Oct
- Rio Ave vs Nacional · FT 3–2
- Benfica vs Guimaraes · FT 2–0